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Why a Comet's Trajectory is Stable
An interstellar object like 3I/ATLAS travels at immense speed (over 130,000 mph), giving it enormous momentum. The Sun's gravity is the main force acting on it, bending its path in a predictable hyperbolic curve. Changing this trajectory would require a massive, precisely aimed force, such as:
- Gravitational Perturbation: An extremely close flyby of a giant planet like Jupiter could slightly alter its path, but the current trajectory is not nearly close enough for this to happen.
- Non-Gravitational Forces: Sudden, powerful jets of gas erupting from the comet's nucleus could act like rocket thrusters, but these are typically weak and unpredictable, unable to cause major course changes.
Hypothetical Comet Impact Scenarios
Mars Impact Scenario
A hypothetical impact on Mars would be catastrophic for the planet. A comet of this size would create a crater hundreds of kilometers wide, vaporize subsurface ice, and eject a massive debris plume, possibly forming a temporary ring. The energy release could briefly thicken Mars's atmosphere, but it would not change the planet's orbit.
Jupiter Impact Scenario
If its path were changed to hit Jupiter, the comet would be annihilated in the gas giant's atmosphere. The impact would create a visible "scar" larger than Earth in the cloud tops, similar to the Shoemaker-Levy 9 impact in 1994. It would have no effect on Jupiter's orbit.
The Threat of Fragmentation
Even if the comet were to break apart due to thermal or gravitational stress, the fragments would continue along the same safe, hyperbolic trajectory out of the solar system. Fragmentation is an interesting scientific event, not a threat.